Can Social Movements Change Political Outcomes? Evidence from the 15M Movement in Spain

Cita:

Casanueva Artís, A. (2015). Can Social Movements Change Political Outcomes? Evidence from the 15M Movement in Spain. ECPR General Conference, Université de Montréal, Montreal, 26-29 August 2015. Montreal: Université de Montréal. Retrieved May 15, 2016 from https://ecpr.eu/Filestore/PaperProposal/bc71d186-55ed-4fba-8eb7-9ee4c915be7c.pdf

Dades de l'obra:

Tipus d'obra: Communication

Categories:

e-Democracy | Politics and Political Science

Etiquetes:

15m, technopolitics

Resum:

Can social movements cause political change? If they cause political change, at what point are their effects long-term lasting? This study addresses these questions by doing a quantitative estimation of the short and long term political effects of the highly digitalized “15M” Spanish social movement that starts in 2011. I exploit the fact that the beginning of the movement was random to use a Regression in Discontinuity Design to estimate short-term effects. I exploit the geographical variation of weather to isolate the causal effect of the movement using 2SLS Instrumental Variables to estimate the long-term effects. Results show significant effects of 15M movement on short-term political opinion and long-term but diminishing effects of 15M movement on vote intention and behaviour. I also found heterogeneous short-term effects: students and individuals with left political preferences present a higher effect of the 15M movement. Low-educated population presents a significantly lower effect.